The managing partner of DWF Labs, Andrei Grachev, has predicted that Bitcoin
will experience a significant rise in price over the long term, but its trading volume is expected to decrease. In a statement on his X account, Grachev emphasized that Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, is effectively transforming into a traditional financial asset. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s increasing share in the fiat currency markets will reshape market dynamics, leading to rising prices but declining volumes.
Bitcoin’s Shift to a Traditional Financial Asset
Grachev noted that Bitcoin’s growing presence in institutional portfolios places it in the same risk assessment category as stocks and bonds. The introduction of exchange-traded funds, custody solutions, and regulatory compliance processes is transitioning Bitcoin from “cryptocurrency” to “traditional capital.” This new status directly links Bitcoin’s price movements to global liquidity cycles.
Andrei Grachev’s Commentary on Bitcoin
The executive foresees that Bitcoin’s slice of the multi-trillion-dollar fiat ecosystem will expand due to rising institutional interest. He argues that corporate balance sheets and state funds increasing their BTC allocations as a hedge against inflation will support long-term price growth.
Anticipation of Long-term Price Rise and Continuous Volume Drop
Despite expectations for a price increase, Grachev predicts that trading volume will move in the opposite direction. As institutional funds adopt a hold-and-wait strategy instead of high-frequency trading, transactions on the blockchain decrease. Solutions like Lightning and Layer-2 shift transactions off the blockchain, reducing visibility. Thus, the maturing market is characterized by a “high value, low transaction” balance.
Grachev believes the decline in volume does not pose a risk to the network’s health. He stated that the network could continue to grow with fewer but more significant transactions. According to him, market value rather than volume will increasingly become a critical indicator of Bitcoin’s long-term success.
Nonetheless, the reduction in volume raises concerns about potential gaps in miner revenue. However, experts suggest that increasing transaction fees will replace block rewards, and the balancing process will naturally proceed.
