Bitcoin
$
118,396 has recently experienced a notable decline, dropping nearly 6% from its record high of $124,000 to below $117,000 on August 14. This movement signals a potential short-term trend change, influenced by the formation of a “bear engulfing” pattern on the daily chart. The current market is caught between the bearish pressure of Asia’s “Ghost Month” and strong Blockchain demand signals from the United States and South Korea. A possible correction to the $100,000–$105,000 range remains a possibility.
Impact of Asia-Centric “Ghost Month” on Bitcoin
The period known as “Ghost Month,” spanning from August 23 to September 21, is perceived as inauspicious in Asia, typically characterized by a reduction in risk appetite and increased profit-taking. Historically, since 2017, average declines during this time have been 21.7%. Notably, there were declines of 39.8% in 2017 and 23% in 2021. If this pattern applies to the current price, Bitcoin could see an additional decrease to the $100,000–$105,000 range. When seasonal psychology aligns with technical appearances, pressure often intensifies. The downward trigger point for the recent drop was August 14. This sharp retreat saw Bitcoin test below $117,000, reinforcing the notion of a consolidation phase. However, the situation is not unidirectional. While formations indicate a downward trend, investor behavior and regional demand are presenting mixed signals. The market is indecisive, with fragile sentiment, as prices hover around critical thresholds.
Signs of Sustained Demand
In terms of Blockchain indicators, there is evidence of resilient absorption capacity against selling pressure. The Coinbase Premium Index from CryptoQuant hit a monthly peak on August 14, hinting at increased spot demand in the US. Likewise, South Korea’s Kimchi Premium has returned to positive territory, indicating revived local appetite. The number of BTC sold at a loss by short-term investors was limited to 16,800 units—significantly lower than the 48,000 BTC seen in previous corrections.
Bitcoin – Coinbase Premium Index
Technically speaking, the $116,000–$117,000 region serves as a critical support level. Spot purchases and futures positions are concentrated here, suggesting that Bitcoin could experience a rapid upward recovery should this floor hold. Conversely, a distinct drop during Ghost Month and a test of $100,000 remain conceivable risks. Longer-term, some analysts suggest that this summer downturn might lay the groundwork for a substantial recovery in the autumn quarter, supported by institutional demand and ongoing capital flows. In essence, the tension between psychological factors and fundamental indicators in Bitcoin persists.
