Peter Brandt, the CEO of Factor LLC and a veteran technical analyst with over 40 years of experience, recently expressed caution about the upward trend of Bitcoin (BTC). Brandt suggested that Bitcoin may have reached its peak in the last bull market, pointing to its latest record high of $73,750 as a potential turning point.
In a recent analysis shared with CoinDesk, Brandt summarized the possibility that Bitcoin’s upward movement may have peaked and that the bull market could be over, a view that contradicts his previous prediction in February. At that time, he had forecasted that the rise, which began from the lows of the bear market in November 2022, could potentially continue until September 2025, with prices possibly reaching up to $200,000.
Brandt’s recent projection for Bitcoin is based on the statistical concept of “exponential decay,” which describes the process of reducing a quantity by a consistent percentage over a certain period. He noted that historically, Bitcoin tends to move within approximately four-year bull/bear cycles, often linked to block reward halvings. Each subsequent bull cycle tends to show about 80% less strength in terms of price multiplication compared to the previous one.
Referring to historical data, Brandt pointed out that if the 80% decline is statistically consistent, Bitcoin’s recent record high of $73,835 on March 14, 2024, aligns with historical exponential declines. This analysis also takes into account the observed diminishing return model in successive bull markets.
Brandt’s analysis also considers Bitcoin’s past performance, including its rise to record levels above $73,000 in March, which corresponds to a significant increase from the lowest level of the bear market at $15,473 in November 2022 following the collapse and bankruptcy of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX.
Despite insights from the exponential decay theory, Brandt added that past data cannot guarantee future results, especially since Bitcoin’s historical upward trends have been influenced by four-year block reward halvings. Notably, the most recent block reward halving occurred on April 20, 2024, reducing the reward per mined block from 6.25 to 3.12 BTC.
Brandt also mentioned that the general consensus in the cryptocurrency market is that the ongoing consolidation between $60,000 and $70,000 could eventually lead to an upward movement. The “Pre/Post Block Reward Halving” cycle structure could mean a potential peak in the range of $140,000 to $160,000 by late summer or early autumn 2025, and this thesis continues to be a primary driving force in Bitcoin ownership.
However, the analyst remains cautious about the exponential decay theory and emphasized that more evidence is needed to determine whether this decay will impact the rising trend that began in November 2022. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $62,300, representing a 1.5% decrease over the last 24 hours.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article should not be considered investment advice. Investors should be aware of the high volatility and risks associated with cryptocurrencies and should conduct their own research.
