Cryptocurrencies and the U.S. Economy
Cryptocurrencies are in eager anticipation of data to be released at 23:00 (TSI) today. Bitcoin 
$0.00003 has found support around $85,700 after testing the $86,000 mark. The ADP data was released today, alongside U.S. durable goods figures that eased recession fears. BACH analyzed the current situation.
Today marks a significant day for the cryptocurrency markets, with Trump dubbing it Liberation Day.
The removal of fear and pressure lingering for months will surely be beneficial for risk markets, as uncertainty shifts into clarity with new tariffs. Markets have long priced in fear and must now confront reality, shedding the excess bubble in valuations.
BACH stated in today’s evaluation;
“ADP (Private Sector Payrolls) came in at 155,000, exceeding estimates. Wall Street expected 120,000. The actual ADP Employment Change was 155,000 (Estimate 120,000, Previous 77,000, Revised 84,000). Given the prevailing fear, achieving some non-recessionary figures these days is generally good.” – BACH
The markets, caught between inflation and recession, may force the Fed to consider rate cuts due to Trump’s tariffs. Such data is positive for the onset of a balanced easing period.
“Despite political uncertainty and consumer despair, the essence is this: March’s peak figure was good for the economy and employers of all sizes, even if not for all sectors.” Are bears trending downward due to price movements or actual data?” – BACH
Market analysts argue that the likelihood of rate cuts in May is increasing.
“Market interest rates continue to decline – the FED’s job is becoming easier. The bond market is directing them towards a cut – if this continues, a rate cut will definitely be on the agenda in May!”
The Day Uncertainty Ends
A general tariff rate of 20% is expected today, although many countries have been negotiating with the U.S. for weeks. Countries seeking to find common ground with Trump, without destroying their economies through various exemptions, have put “trade agreements instead of tariffs” on the table.
However, tariffs will still affect everyone. The British Prime Minister stated that “despite the agreement we reached, we will be impacted by customs duties,” highlighting how the effects of tariffs will still be felt, albeit limited.
The key point seems to be the “overpriced fear.” At 23:00, we will witness whether the “excess” of fear or optimism has been tempered. Tomorrow will also mark the day when countries eager to enter trade wars with the U.S. will begin announcing the tariff moves they have prepared for weeks.
