At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
$94,484
stands at $94,200, leading crypto investors through another challenging weekend. Prolonged downtrends have been prevalent, yet they are not perpetual. Exhausted investors are eager for the commencement of a stable rally period lasting several months. So, what are the experts saying?
Fed Week and Cryptocurrency
In our warnings published yesterday, altcoins hadn’t experienced such significant losses. However, we are in the midst of a clearly foreseeable downturn. While BTC retracts gradually, altcoins are experiencing a much more unpleasant situation. Had the employment data on Friday not been somewhat favorable, the Fed would have announced its decision on Wednesday evening, cornered.
Now there are concerns that rates won’t decrease even in June. In today’s assessment, Michael Poppe has stated:
“The upcoming Wednesday Fed meeting indicates no rate cuts. If a rate cut happens, it would be a big surprise for markets.”
Two main reasons exist for the lack of rate cuts. Firstly, President Trump’s intense remarks like “Powell lower rates, or I’ll fire you” could lead to a loss of credibility if the Fed cuts rates amid such noise. Secondly, tariff negotiations will continue until July, especially affecting the inflation impact of tariffs against China in the next 1-2 months. Last month’s nearly 2% PCE is being widely disregarded for this reason.
Transitional Period and Cryptocurrencies
May has arrived, and starting mid-month, expect headlines encouraging “sell and go on vacation” for the dips. Investors worn down throughout the year will announce a market break, reducing volumes and likely seeing more seller-dominant days. As tariff talks persist until July, concerns over inflation and recession will drag on another tedious period. If Trump had announced these tariffs next year, the first quarter could have seen a significant rise until mid-May.
Bob Loukas continues to consider that we are in a transition phase.
“Between market pricing and recession probability, especially after the recent recovery, there’s still a fair difference. The 2022 recession scare didn’t materialize, but we must remain cautious in this volatile environment. Currently, I’m cautious with stock purchases.”
Renowned institutional trader Guilherme Tavares discusses the “Magnificent Seven” that dominate U.S. markets. Their performance affects cryptocurrencies directly, making these details significant.
“Mag7 short squeeze? Technically, MAG7 shows potential bearish tendency with a possible head and shoulders pattern and testing the 200DMA. Despite long/short position ratio lingering at historical lows, positioning remains extremely negative. Given this scenario, I believe the positioning will outweigh the price chart and support further rises for MAG7 short to medium-term.”
