The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to announce its final decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF this week. This decision is crucial and may depend on a single vote, reminiscent of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s vote in January that approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. The same five commissioners will cast their votes on May 23, and their views on cryptocurrency may provide some insights into the potential outcomes.
Let’s take a closer look at the key SEC members and their stances on cryptocurrency. Hester Peirce, also known as “Crypto Mom,” has consistently shown support for cryptocurrencies. Although her vote on the spot Ethereum ETF is not confirmed yet, her involvement with the Ethereum community and criticisms of the SEC’s regulatory approach suggest that she may vote in favor.
On the other hand, SEC member Caroline Crenshaw, who has been critical of the cryptocurrency industry, is expected to have a predictable stance. Crenshaw opposed the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, expressing concerns about market manipulation and lack of regulation. There is no indication that her stance has changed, making it likely that she will vote against the spot Ethereum ETF.
Mark Uyeda, like Peirce, has criticized the SEC’s regulatory tactics. Despite concerns about the decision-making process, he voted to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs. His vote on the spot Ethereum ETF remains uncertain, but his support for spot Bitcoin ETFs suggests that he might lean towards approval.
Another SEC member, Jaime Lizarraga, is known for opposing spot Bitcoin ETFs and expressing doubts about the role of cryptocurrencies in financial inclusion. He considers most cryptocurrencies as securities and believes they operate illegally, making it unlikely that he will support the spot Ethereum ETF.
Meanwhile, Chairman Gary Gensler, who voted to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs, may be influenced by Grayscale’s successful appeal against the SEC. His stance on the spot Ethereum ETF is less clear. Gensler has avoided clarifying the regulatory status of Ethereum and faces pressure from an ongoing investigation into its classification.
Now let’s discuss the potential outcomes and the impact they may have on the market. Gensler’s vote is crucial and may even be decisive. The SEC’s approach to spot Ethereum ETFs is being closely watched, with conflicting signals coming from within the commission. Some fund managers anticipate a rejection, citing the SEC’s lower engagement compared to spot Bitcoin ETF applications.
Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart predict a 25% chance of approval for at least one spot Ethereum ETF on May 23. This is a significant decrease from the 70% likelihood predicted at the beginning of the year.
It is not surprising that the SEC’s decision will have significant implications for the cryptocurrency market. If approved, it could legitimize Ethereum as an investment asset, similar to the impact of the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. On the other hand, a rejection would increase the regulatory challenges faced by cryptocurrencies in the US.
It’s important to note that the information provided in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware of the high volatility and associated risks of cryptocurrencies and should conduct their own research.
